Posted on: 02/26/2025
“Middle skill” occupations- or, occupations that require some educational attainment beyond a high school diploma but less than a bachelor’s degree1- are an important component of Kentucky’s labor market. Bolstering the labor supply for these occupations is a common goal of education and training programs funded by the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity (WIOA) Act, and, in Kentucky, opportunities such as the Work Ready Kentucky Scholarship incentivize individuals to enter these occupations. The following analysis examines these occupations in terms of their composition, job volumes, projected growth, wages, and industry relationships.
Labor market information programs that feature occupations as the primary unit of analysis2 indicate that there are at least 101 middle skill occupations actively performed by Kentuckians. Use the bubble graph below to explore the statewide estimated employment levels of each occupation according to 2022-2032 Employment Projections from KYSTATS.
Click here to download the employment data underlying this
graph, as well as the state-level
employment projection and wage data featured throughout
the rest of this article.
Collectively, middle skill occupations account for more than 239,000 jobs in Kentucky- approximately 12 percent of all occupational employment in the state. These occupations range in employment size from less than 100 jobs to more than 30,000, with over half of all middle skill employment concentrated in only seven occupations (see labeled occupations in bubble chart above). Regional variation in the percent of total occupational employment accounted for by middle skill occupations is minimal, with the EKCEP Local Workforce Area exhibiting the highest concentration at 13.5%, and TENCO the lowest at 9.9%.
Middle skill occupations are commonly categorized as such by the levels of educational attainment required to perform them, but the actual skills associated with these occupations are also noteworthy insofar as they can help characterize what is (or is not) unique about these jobs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recently released score-based estimates for the relevance of broad skill categories to occupations requiring specific levels of educational attainment that can be used to examine these characteristics.
“Detail Oriented,” “Adaptability,” and “Interpersonal” are the skill categories that the BLS indicates are among the most relevant to middle skill occupations, but these skill sets are at least equally relevant to other types of occupations. This, in turn, implies that the broadly-defined skills that are most necessary for the performance of middle skill work are not unique. In fact, occupations typically requiring a postsecondary nondegree award (e.g. a certificate) are the only middle skill occupations that exhibit the highest relevance scores for any particular skills (“Fine Motor,” “Physical Strength and Stamina”) compared to other types of occupations.
Middle skill occupations are commonly highlighted for the
relatively high wages afforded to the workers performing them. In Kentucky,
there are many middle skill occupations that not only typically pay a living
wage, but also pay wages that are competitive with occupations requiring more
advanced levels of education (including post-baccalaureate degrees).
According to Kentucky’s 2024 statewide occupational wage estimates from the BLS, among the three levels of educational attainment classified as ‘middle skill,’ occupations requiring Associate’s degrees largely exhibit the highest median wages, with 40 of the 46 such occupations paying a living wage (using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Living Wage calculator’s estimate for a One Adult, No Children household as the threshold). Over half (26 of 44) of occupations typically requiring Postsecondary nondegree awards (e.g. certificates) and exactly half (3 of 6) of occupations requiring some college (but no degree) pay a living wage. Several of the highest-paying middle skill occupations are generally characterizable as healthcare-related (e.g. Nuclear Medicine Technologists) or aviation-related (e.g. Air Traffic Controllers or Commercial Pilots – the two highest paying middle skill occupations).
Many middle skill occupations that pay a living wage in Kentucky also feature substantial on-the-job-training regimens. Of the 26 middle skill occupations that typically require moderate or long-term on-the-job-training, only one (Firefighters) exhibits median wages that do not exceed the living wage threshold.
Data that address employment volumes at the intersection of occupations and industries (e.g. “How many Nursing Assistants work in Healthcare vs. Educational Services?) is available from the BLS in the form of a national industry/occupation employment matrix, which can be used to reveal the industries in which middle skill occupations comprise the largest portions of their respective workforces at the national level.
*Note: Only occupations with a demonstrable presence in
Kentucky are included in this analysis.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023-2033 Occupational Employment Projections Data
Due in no small part to the substantial volumes of employment accounted for by Nursing Assistants and Heavy / Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Healthcare and Social Assistance and Transportation and Warehousing are the two industries that most heavily rely on middle skill occupations, with 24.4% and 21.3% of their respective total occupational employment performed by individuals in middle skill occupations as of 2023. At the other extreme, less than one percent of occupational employment in Accommodation and Food Services is accounted for by middle skill occupations.
KYSTATS’ occupational employment projections offer a glimpse
into the potential future of Kentucky’s labor market, and, by extension, the
dynamic role of middle skill occupations within it. In terms of occupational
growth – i.e. how many more (or fewer) jobs will be accounted for by specific
occupations in the future- many middle skill occupations will experience
substantial growth. For example, by raw volume of employment, Heavy and
Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers; Medical Assistants; Nursing Assistants; and Licensed
Practical / Vocational Nurses are all expected to account for at least 1,000 additional jobs in Kentucky by 2032. Other occupations are
expected to experience even more substantial growth proportional to their
current size, including Physical Therapist Assistants (expected to grow by
25%), CNC Tool Programmers (+21%), and Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
(+20%).
Collectively, middle skill occupations (with publishable employment projections) are expected to grow by 4.8% from 2022 to 2032. But this growth is not expected to be homogenous among the various credential types qualifying individuals for middle skill employment; Associate’s degree earners and Postsecondary nondegree award earners will be qualified to perform occupations that are expected to grow by 7.1% and 7.0%, respectively. Conversely, occupations requiring some college, but no degree, are expected to decline by 2.6% - a trend which is projected to be primarily driven by a decline in the number of Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerk jobs (nearly 1,700).
Growth is a critical concept for understanding the future of specific occupations, but it is not the only source of job openings within occupations. In fact, with only a handful of exceptions, growth generally produces far fewer job openings in a given occupation than Exits from an occupation (i.e. individuals who exit the labor force after performing an occupation) and Transfers from an occupation (i.e. instances of an individual ceasing to perform one occupation to begin performing another). Use the graph below to understand the percent of total job openings in each attainment-based occupational category that are expected to be produced by each phenomenon.
In addition to a percentage of the total openings projected for occupations, Exits and Transfers can also be expressed as a rate, calculated per the size of an occupation's overall employment (available at the national level from the BLS). In the context of middle skill occupations, it is perhaps most noteworthy that some
of the largest middle skill jobs exhibit
greater-than-average projected rates of Exits and/or Transfers. Nursing
Assistants, for example, is an occupation that is expected to lose 5.9% of its
workforce per year to Exits (1.4 percentage points greater than the national
average for all occupational employment, shown by the dotted line below), and 8% of its workforce to Transfers
(1.7 percentage points greater than average).
Middle skill occupations – occupations requiring some educational attainment beyond a high school diploma but less than a bachelor’s degree - are common targets of WIOA training programs and other state-specific workforce development efforts. In Kentucky, these occupations range in employment size from dozens of jobs to 30,000+, and they collectively comprise nearly 12% of Kentucky’s total occupational employment. Many middle skill occupations (especially those requiring Associate’s degrees, and those that could be considered healthcare or aviation-related occupations) offer wages comparable to those of occupations requiring more advanced levels of educational attainment. In some industries, such as Transportation and Warehousing or Healthcare and Social Assistance, middle skill occupations account for roughly 1 in 5 jobs. In the ten year period from 2022 to 2032, middle skill occupations are collectively expected to grow by 4.8%. Finally, although individuals don’t exit the labor force or transfer out of all middle skill occupations at greater-than-average rates, some relatively large middle skill occupations do exhibit elevated levels of Exits and Transfers compared to other occupations.
1
Note that this article defines middle skill occupations as those occupations typically requiring formal education beyond a high school diploma but less than bachelor's degree. However, other research (including KYSTATS' Career and Technical Education Feedback Report) may characterize middle skill occupations differently, basing possible definitions on apprenticeship requirements, on-the-job-training requirements, or other factors.
At the state level, any given occupation may have publishable estimates of either occupational wages, occupational employment projections, or both. Middle skill occupations fitting any of these three descriptions are discussed throughout this article, but some graphs (e.g. the bubble graph of occupational employment) may only contain occupations with only one available estimate type.
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